Every year, Black Friday and Cyber Monday push the limits of online shopping — where timing, messaging, and product mix can make or break a quarter.

To understand what really drove 2024’s results — and how brands can get ahead for 2025 — we analyzed 633 online stores between November 15 and December 14, 2024.

Only stores with complete, consistent tracking were included, excluding outliers with unusually high purchase values. The data uncovered five clear lessons that separate top performers from the rest — and how you can turn those insights into action next year.

BFCM 2025 runs from Friday, November 28, 2025 (Black Friday) to Monday, December 1, 2025 (Cyber Monday)!

WHO — Know Who Really Drives Growth

2024’s BFCM success came from a careful balance between new visitor acquisition and returning customer engagement.

[Figure 1: Daily Site Sessions]

Traffic surged from mid-November as new shoppers came in — likely through referral programs, paid campaigns, and early-access deals.

[Figure 2: Share of New Visitor Sessions by Date and Site]

[Figure 3: Daily Purchase Conversion Rate Distribution by Site]

Despite the decline in new-visitor share after BFCM, overall conversion rates remained steady across the season [Figure 3].

At first glance, this might suggest that both new and returning shoppers played complementary roles — new visitors fueling the initial surge, and returning customers maintaining momentum.

However, when we look at repurchase behavior, a different pattern emerges.

[Figure 4: Average Repurchase Rate After 4 Weeks (All Buyers)]

Overall repurchase rates dropped to around 2.4–3.1% during the BFCM period — below the yearly average — and returning buyers followed the same trend, dipping to about 1.3 % before a modest recovery by mid-December.

This indicates that much of the season’s performance was likely driven by one-time purchases rather than repeat activity. Even loyal customers showed signs of fatigue amid intense discounting and promotion cycles.

[Figure 5: Average Repurchase Rate After 4 Weeks (Returning Buyers)]

Overall, the data shows that while overall activity tapered after BFCM, new buyers fueled early growth and returning customers sustained performance through December, helping soften the post-season slowdown.

What this means for 2025:

BFCM may drive record traffic, but it also tests customer endurance. Data shows that brands that rely solely on heavy promotions risk flattening repurchase momentum. For 2025, the focus should shift toward retention timing and post-promotion reactivation — re-engaging both new and returning shoppers once the initial burst cools.

WHEN — BFCM No Longer Starts on Friday

That classic four-day shopping window? It’s officially a three-week journey now — full of early peaks and delayed conversions.

[Figure 6: Purchase Volume by Site and Date]

• Peak purchase activity: November 18 recorded the highest overall sales.
• Highest average purchase value: November 18, November 25, and December 1 stood out with the strongest AOVs.
• Momentum extended through early December, with smaller surges on December 7–10 presumably driven by follow up or holiday season campaigns.

What this means for 2025:

Start early. Stay consistent. And plan your messaging in phases.
Brands that shift from a “BFCM weekend” mindset to a “Black November” strategy will see steadier, more predictable results all season long.

WHAT — Practical Value Outperformed Flashy Discounts

2024’s winning products weren’t the flashiest — they were useful, repeatable, and giftable.

Across categories, bundled offers and limited-edition kits outperformed single-item discounts — proving that shoppers prioritized value and convenience over deep cuts.

What this means for 2025:

Focus on durability and daily relevance. Expect multi-item bundles, gifting sets, and subscription-style promotions to dominate next year.

WITH — Smarter Creatives, Smarter Results

Creative execution made all the difference in 2024.

Performance dropped when creatives felt repetitive or overly promotional.
The strongest campaigns spoke directly to user behavior — like “Your cart item is back on sale” — rather than shouting “Sitewide 50% Off.”

Looking ahead, each product’s impression-level data will push personalization even further. Beyond clicks or conversions, it reveals exposure frequency, audience overlap, and early signs of creative fatigue. With this visibility, marketers can rotate creatives before engagement dips, cap overexposure, and identify what truly resonates — especially during mid-cycle lulls like Nov 25–Dec 5.

Reflecting back on the ‘Who’ insight, this kind of personalization also helps combat the repurchase fatigue we observed during the BFCM season.

When customers are flooded with repetitive messaging, even loyal ones disengage. But by using impression-level signals to tailor product recommendations and adjust timing, brands can re-engage both new and returning buyers more effectively — turning short-term interest into lasting retention.

What this means for 2025:

Dynamic, behavior-aware creatives will be key — and so will impression-level visibility. Use it to catch fatigue early, adjust exposure in real time, and personalize delivery at scale. The brands that blend automation with granular data will stay relevant longer — and make every impression count.

HOW — Retention Timing Matters

Retention remains the toughest challenge post-BFCM — not just bringing shoppers back, but re-engaging them at the right time and with the right offer.

[Figure 7: Average Repurchase Rate After 4 Weeks (All Buyers)]

[Figure 8: Average Purchase Amount by Date]

Right after Cyber Monday, both purchase frequency [Figure 7] and average order value [Figure 8] dropped, indicating a natural cooldown as buyer fatigue set in. However, around 10–14 days later, both metrics began to recover, suggesting that shoppers were ready to spend again once the initial discount rush had passed.

What this means for 2025:

Don’t rush post-BFCM follow-ups. Instead, let intent rebuild organically. Use personalized recommendations and behavior-based timing — such as reminding customers of viewed items or restocks — to re-ignite engagement without overwhelming them.

The goal isn’t just to reactivate quickly, but to re-engage relevantly. Smart timing and personalization together prevent fatigue and turn one-time buyers into repeat customers.

Final Takeaway

BFCM 2024 made one thing clear: data-driven precision beats aggressive discounting. Top performers didn’t just chase clicks — they understood timing, intent, and the power of relevance.

As we head into 2025, one lesson stands out: The winners won’t be the loudest — they’ll be the smartest.

Start your next BFCM season smarter with Datarize — turning every impression into meaningful insight, and every insight into measurable growth.